How prediction markets work

A prediction market lets you trade shares on the outcome of a real-world event. Each share you own pays out KSh 100 if the outcome you backed wins, and KSh 0 if it doesn't.

Prices = probabilities

The price of a share reflects what the crowd thinks the chance of that outcome is.

• YES at KSh 67 means the crowd thinks there's a 67% chance YES wins.
• If you buy 1 share at KSh 67 and YES wins, you receive KSh 100 (KSh 33 profit).
• If YES loses, your share pays KSh 0 — you lose the KSh 67.

Why prices move

Every trade slightly nudges the price. As more people back YES, the YES price rises and NO falls — and vice versa. The market is constantly re-pricing based on collective opinion and news.